The data from the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade confirmed the expectations of the market participants and showed positive adjustments of the world production and trade volumes of soybeans expected for the 2016/17 season.
So, according to updated estimates, gross harvesting of soybeans during MY 2016/17 will reach 345.97 MMT (+ 5.18 MMT in comparison to the previous forecast). The growth of the aggregate indicator will be achieved due to reassessment towards an increase in the production of the crop in Brazil (+3 MMT to 111 MMT), Argentina (+0.5 MMT to 56.0 MMT) and Paraguay (+0.93 MMT to 10.1 MMT).
The increase in production, at the same time, will not be reflected in the increase in processing volumes but will stimulate export shipments from above-mentioned countries. The total world export of soybeans by the end of the season was revalued to 143.30 MMT (+2.2 MMT). Additional volumes of import purchases, in turn, will be made by China and the EU countries. The global import forecast for the marketing year was raised by 1.8 MMT to 140.05 MMT.
However, the increase in the volume of world trade will not be able to absorb additional supply volumes, so that their increase will lead to a greater increase in the transitional reserves as a result of the season. Thus, the global reserves of soybeans for the MY 2016/17 are expected to reach 87.41 MMT (+4.6 MMT in comparison with the previous estimate and +10.3 MMT in comparison with the indicator for the results of 2015/16 season). More than 60% of such reserves will be concentrated in Argentina and Brazil.
|
Soybeans: world balance of supply and demand, MMT |
||||
|
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
2016/17 |
|
|
Production, incl.: |
319,595 |
313,024 |
340,788 |
345,965 |
|
Brazil |
97,200 |
96,500 |
108,000 |
111,000 |
|
Argentina |
61,400 |
56,800 |
55,500 |
56,000 |
|
Paraguay |
8,154 |
9,220 |
9,170 |
10,100 |
|
Export, incl.: |
126,218 |
132,239 |
141,105 |
143,304 |
|
Brazil |
50,612 |
54,383 |
61,000 |
61,900 |
|
Paraguay |
4,488 |
5,310 |
5,400 |
6,200 |
|
Import, incl.: |
124,361 |
133,400 |
138,249 |
140,049 |
|
China |
78,350 |
83,230 |
87,000 |
88,000 |
|
The EU |
13,914 |
15,006 |
13,800 |
14,600 |
|
Processing |
264,069 |
275,442 |
291,548 |
291,948 |
|
Transitional reserves |
77,531 |
77,126 |
82,821 |
87,412 |
|
Argentina |
31,916 |
31,950 |
29,700 |
30,400 |
|
Brazil |
18,925 |
18,050 |
20,800 |
22,600 |
|
China |
17,009 |
16,910 |
15,560 |
16,560 |
|
USA |
5,188 |
5,354 |
11,843 |
12,124 |
|
Data – USDA, visuals – ProAgro |
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According to ProAgro, the total export of soybeans from Ukraine will total 2.7 MMT, up from the previous season by 8% as a result of the current season. The volumes of domestic consumption, at the same time, will remain almost unchanged.
