In the updated Grain Market Report, IGC (International Grain Council) analysts again raised the estimate of world grain production in MY 2016/17 to a record 2,111 MMT (+ 5% versus 2,008 MMT in MY 2015/16). A key factor in the increase was the increase in corn production in countries located in the southern hemisphere of the planet.
At the same time, despite the high demand, the stock is also expected to grow up to a new record level of 516 MMT (+ 8% compared to the results of the previous season). At the same time, even despite large purchases of wheat from India, the world grain trade volumes in the 2016/17 season will still be slightly lower than those of the previous marketing year.
For the future, MY 2017/18, the latest IGC adjustments have raised the expected volume of grain production in the world to 2,054 MMT, which is higher than the March forecast of 4 MMT. Given that the adjustments did not affect consumption volumes, the expected transitional reserves by the end of the next season were increased by 8 MMT to 491 MMT.
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Balance of world production and consumption of grain, MMT According to IGC |
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|
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
2017/18, outlook |
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from 30.03.17 |
from 27.04.17 |
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|
Production |
2049 |
2006 |
2111 |
2050 |
2054 |
|
Trade |
322 |
346 |
345 |
340 |
342 |
|
Consumption |
2007 |
1984 |
2075 |
2079 |
2079 |
|
Transitional reserves |
457 |
480 |
516 |
484 |
491 |
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Reserves changes, y/y |
+41 |
+23 |
+36 |
-32 |
-25 |
It should be noted that according to Proagro”s forecast, the production of basic grain (including legumes) in Ukraine (MY 2016/17) is estimated at 65.78 MMT and the volume of transitional reserves is expected at the level of 5.57 MMT by the end of the season. In MY 2017/18, as forecasted, due to reduction of aggregate sown areas, gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops will decrease to 63.73 MMT (-3.2%).
